Dr. Bahaa Helmy writes: Brexit and Its Effects on Egypt

Visions for the Future, 27/6/2016 – The reasons for Britain's exit from the European Union and its effects. The English voted in favour of Britain leaving the European Union by about 51.5% in the referendum held on 23 June, contrary to expectations, which came as a shock to the European Union and to the British Prime Minister, who had taken the initiative of bringing the referendum forward instead of holding it in 2017. This restores parliamentary sovereignty to the United Kingdom, gives the United Kingdom freedom of decision over controlling immigration and a better position in trade negotiations, and, in the words of the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, one of the leaders of the supporters of the separation movement, the time has come to take control of the country's capabilities, while the other section of the English, who had supported remaining in the European Union, were left disappointed. We believe that Britain's exit from the European Union has negative aspects for Britain, the European Union, the United States of America and the global economy, and positive aspects for the Gulf states and Egypt. The negative aspects for the British economy lie in the possibility that projects carried out in partnership with the European Union will be halted, or some of them cancelled; it will also lead to job losses and a rise in unemployment, and to delays in investment flowing into Britain in light of the increased risks for large and small companies. The London property market will inevitably be affected, as will the British banking sector, with the currency falling against the euro and the dollar. At the regional and international level, Britain's exit is the departure of the second-largest economy in the European Union, which will create new policies for the European Union's dealings with it, in addition to increased competition among companies in the European Union countries with the aim of curbing their British competitors. As for the political level, which cannot be separated from the economic track, it also has effects on the global balance of power. At the European level, Britain's exit will spread the contagion of separation referendums, meaning that it will encourage other countries such as the Netherlands, Spain, Greece and others to leave the European Union, especially in light of the ongoing migration problem. The referendum has also revived the Scots' dreams of holding a referendum on separating from the United Kingdom, and the separation has caused the European Union to lose a nuclear great power that is a permanent member of the Security Council. We believe that this referendum has stirred the spirit of, and appetite for, secession in many American states seeking to break away from the mother country, such as Texas, Montana, etc., which demand separate governments and an independent entity for each of them. As for the positive aspects, they will be in Russia's favour, despite the efforts made by Obama in supporting Cameron against separation, which ended in failure. Britain's exit will also have a positive impact on the Gulf states and Egypt, which may lead to increased competition for markets in the Gulf states and North Africa and to improved relations with those countries. This reinforces the orientation of policy towards the Gulf states, given their citizens' eagerness to acquire it.