The Collapse of America… Between Wishes and Predictions
Dr. Bahaa Helmy Writes:
Talk has increased in various media recently, especially the Russian and Arab media, of many predictions and wishes for the collapse of America in light of the escalating division that has recently prevailed in American society.
There is no doubt that there is a difference between impressions and wishes on the one hand and opinion or prediction on the other: impressions are quick observations that may change later, and wishes are built on emotions, whereas predictions must be based on scientific facts or on information and indicators that are almost certain or certain, as is the case with opinion, which is generated by thinking and based on information, facts, studies and scientific research; and there are the predictions of astrologers, which do not fall within our subject here.
Talk of the collapse of America, the world’s superpower, began in the seventies of the last century, after it abandoned the Bretton Woods agreement, which set the dollar at a rate of 35 dollars per ounce of gold.
Harvard predicted in 1970 that the American dream would turn into a nightmare, based on studies by leading economists indicating the shrinking of opportunities for the young people of the new generation compared with past generations, because of the policies of successive governments that led to a failure to achieve justice between the top and the base of the pyramid in the United States of America, the narrowing of opportunities for the poor and the deterioration of living standards for millions of Americans, while the rich reaped multiples of their wealth.
Some believe that Trump’s announcement of his determination to recover the American dream through the slogan “America First” carries within it a call for America to regain its economic position globally, in parallel with feelings of xenophobia, racial bias and more violence., which some interpreted as an allusion to white nationalism and a conflicted relationship with immigration, hostility to immigrants and fear of foreigners, in clear and explicit contradiction with the policies of the Democrats, which go along with the strife and follies of democracy, as they call it, which contributes to entrenching and consolidating the spirit of division in American society.
The American economy is in continuous decline; in 2014 it lost its top place on the list of the world’s largest economies by purchasing power to China. The American economy had previously contracted by 5% in 2007/2008 following the mortgage and financial derivatives crisis, in addition to the effects of printing banknotes (the dollar) without any cover or reserve of gold, which reflected negatively on public finances, the labour force, foreign trade and foreign investment.
In April 2019 the World Bank announced the increase in America’s domestic and external debt, and that China’s gross domestic product exceeds the American gross domestic product, and that China is rapidly acquiring partnership assets and resources in Africa, Latin America, Europe and Asia; it is also the third largest country in the world in terms of military power.
This influence has extended to India, which enjoys growing economic and military strength, alongside Germany, which will become another centre of power in the world as it leads Europe economically without rival, with the moving of the headquarters of the European Union to Berlin and the effort to bring Japan, South Korea and some Latin American countries into it.
Russia appears, ranking sixth in the world in economic strength, and perhaps it will rank third after China and India thanks to its reserves of natural resources in Siberia and the Arctic; Russia is also advancing in the space industry, the nuclear industry, information technology and military industries.
All this crystallizes the saying that America is disintegrating: the growing social division and deep inequality within society; the change in the way opinion is expressed into waves of violence and protests accompanied by looting as a result of racism and discrimination against Americans, especially those of African origin, whether in education, health care or criminal prosecution; in parallel with the economic collapse and the internal political problems of the United States; in addition to the consequences of the coronavirus, which has claimed the lives of a large number of Americans and is still striking the world in successive waves; and the policies of the Democrats will cast a cloud of despair that may turn the American dream into a nightmare threatening civil war or an American division leading to the emergence of new states as a result of the break-up of the United States of America and the union of some homogeneous states to form one or more new states. In any case, Democratic rule will not be able to control matters over the next four years. Are these predictions? Yes, there are American studies that say so.